Dollar edges up from one-month low v.s. yen; euro nurses losses
The dollar rose versus the yen on Wednesday, while the euro nursed its losses after retreating on concerns over the health of the European financial system.
The dollar JPY= rose 0.2 percent to 100.69 yen, regaining some footing after setting a one-month low of 100.085 yen on Tuesday.
The euro held steady at $1.1209 EUR=, languishing below this week’s high of $1.1280 set on Monday.
The euro had retreated on Tuesday as share prices in Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), Germany’s largest lender, fell to a record low on concerns about a $14 billion demand from the U.S. Department of Justice.
Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 95.551 .DXY.
Against the yen, the dollar was seen likely to be supported at the psychologically key 100 yen level, although a breach of that level could open the way for the dollar to test support at 99, a low marked in the aftermath of the UK’s “Brexit” vote.
The dollar will probably trade in a 100 yen to 102 yen range in the near term, said Stephen Innes, a senior trader for FX broker OANDA in Singapore.
Some traders seem to be looking to take short positions in the dollar if it rises towards 102 yen, Innes said, adding that dollar-selling could also gain steam if the greenback were to fall below 100 yen.
“If we break below the figure it’s just going to be like a free-for-all I would imagine down to the post-Brexit level,” Innes said.
Shinichiro Kadota, chief FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo, said the dollar looks likely to be supported above 100 for now, but added he did not see rapid gains.
“Even after some strong U.S. economic data, the dollar couldn’t gain much yesterday, which seems to suggest the dollar has limited upside for now,” Kadota said.
Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved, while a service sector survey also came in better than expected.
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Tuesday the Federal Reserve should avoid raising interest rates too much, a comment that helped to push down 10-year U.S. bond yields to a three-week low, also undermining the dollar.
While the Fed’s policy statement last week suggested the likelihood of a rise in U.S. rates in December, money market futures have since then been trimming the possibility of a December hike.
The futures now price in a less than 50 percent chance of a rate increase by December, compared to over 60 percent after the Fed’s policy meeting last week.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will give semi-annual testimony later in the day before a Congressional committee, though her main focus is expected to be financial regulation.