Archives
Post-tariff considerations
May 17th, 2019
President Trump has declared he will extend tariffs of 25% on all America’s imports of Chinese goods. China is responding with tariff increases of its own. The consequences of this action and reaction will be to kick-start higher ...
Cyber wars and all that
May 3rd, 2019
Behind the Huawei story, we must not forget there is a wider financial war being waged by America against China and Russia. Stories about China’s banks being short of dollars are incorrect: the shortage is of inward capital ...
The US Government Debt Crisis
May 2nd, 2019
This article explains why the US Government is ensnared in a debt trap from which there is no escape. Its finances are spiralling out of control. In the context of a rapidly slowing global economy, the budget deficit ...
Currencies threatened by a credit crisis
February 15th, 2019
In this article I draw attention to the similarities between the current economic situation and that of 1929, and the threat to today’s unbacked currencies. There is the coincidence of trade protectionism with the top of the credit cycle, ...
Trade wars – a catalyst for economic crisis
February 1st, 2019
In my last article I used a proven accounting identity to show that the end result of President Trump’s trade tariffs would be to increase the trade deficit, assuming there is no change in the savings rate. The savings ...
Pound holds up against Dollar; Asian markets edged down Tuesday
January 22nd, 2019
Asian markets edged down Tuesday as profit-takers stepped in following a recent run-up, while the pound maintained gains on hopes Britain will avoid crashing out of the European Union. While there were few catalysts to drive business and Wall ...
The Tragedy Of The Euro
January 11th, 2019
After two decades, the euro’s minders look set to drive the Eurozone into deep trouble. December was the last month of the ECB’s monthly purchases of government debt. A softening global economy will increase government deficits unexpectedly. The ...
Markets are all about flows
January 8th, 2019
This article looks at prospective supply and demand factors for financial assets in the New Year and beyond. Investors should take into account money flowing into and out of financial assets as well as stock flows, particularly escalating ...
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis
January 2nd, 2019
Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I ...
Time Is Money, Money Is Time
December 21st, 2018
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player who struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more. -Macbeth Our limited time, our brief candle as Shakespeare’s Macbeth had it earlier in the ...
