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Currencies threatened by a credit crisis

February 15th, 2019 (0)
In this article I draw attention to the similarities between the current economic situation and that of 1929, and the threat to today’s unbacked currencies. There is the coincidence of trade protectionism with the top of the credit cycle, ...

Trade wars – a catalyst for economic crisis

February 1st, 2019 (0)
In my last article I used a proven accounting identity to show that the end result of President Trump’s trade tariffs would be to increase the trade deficit, assuming there is no change in the savings rate. The savings ...

Pound holds up against Dollar; Asian markets edged down Tuesday

January 22nd, 2019 (0)
Asian markets edged down Tuesday as profit-takers stepped in following a recent run-up, while the pound maintained gains on hopes Britain will avoid crashing out of the European Union. While there were few catalysts to drive business and Wall ...

The Tragedy Of The Euro

January 11th, 2019 (0)
  After two decades, the euro’s minders look set to drive the Eurozone into deep trouble. December was the last month of the ECB’s monthly purchases of government debt. A softening global economy will increase government deficits unexpectedly. The ...

Markets are all about flows

January 8th, 2019 (0)
  This article looks at prospective supply and demand factors for financial assets in the New Year and beyond. Investors should take into account money flowing into and out of financial assets as well as stock flows, particularly escalating ...

The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis

January 2nd, 2019 (0)
Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I ...

Time Is Money, Money Is Time

December 21st, 2018 (0)
  Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player who struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more. -Macbeth Our limited time, our brief candle as Shakespeare’s Macbeth had it earlier in the ...

Why China should remove all trade tariffs

December 10th, 2018 (0)
  I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to ...

G20 and the financial war

December 6th, 2018 (0)
  Introduction President Trump initiated the trade war with China. There is a widespread assumption he is pursuing his “art of the deal”, coming into negotiations aggressively to get a satisfactory compromise. Therefore, the script goes, China will be ...

Why interest rates are rising long-term

November 23rd, 2018 (0)
  There are growing expectations that the current cycle of rising interest rates will result in a deflationary recession. While a credit crisis is increasingly likely to evolve in the coming months, it is a highly inflationary situation. A ...
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