EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.4652 continues. As long as 1.4964 resistance holds, near term outlook stays bearish and deeper decline is still expected. Below 1.4652 will target 161.8% projection of 1.5831 to 1.4987 from 1.5536 at 1.4170, which is close to medium term fibonacci level at 1.4216. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.4964 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.5536 resistance.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place at 1.5831 on bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Fall from there is viewed as a correction and would extend lower to 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.5831 at 1.4216. Meanwhile, we’d expect strong support from 1.4050 to contain downside and bring rebound. Based on the five wave impulsive structure of the rise from 1.1602 to 1.5831, such rally should resume after finishing the consolidation pattern from 1.5831 and target 50% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 (2012 low) at 1.6365 and above.