EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. he bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours and daily MACD started to argue that a bottom is already in place. And, the correction from 1.5831 might have completed a five wave triangle pattern already. Nonetheless, we’ll need a strong break of 1.5017 resistance to confirm. On the downside, below 1.4563 will target medium term fibonacci level at 1.4216 and we’d look for bottoming signal there.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place at 1.5831 on bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Fall from there is viewed as a correction and would extend lower to 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.5831 at 1.4216. Meanwhile, we’d expect strong support from 1.4050 to contain downside and bring rebound. Based on the five wave impulsive structure of the rise from 1.1602 to 1.5831, such rally should resume after finishing the consolidation pattern from 1.5831 and target 50% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 (2012 low) at 1.6365 and above.