The IMF’s latest Outlook Update says for Slow but Steady Global Recovery
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update says that global recovery continues but at an uneven pace, and that downside risks remain. Continued policy efforts are needed to secure a more robust recovery.
- Global growth forecast at 3.4 percent for 2014—0.3 percent weaker than April projections—and at 4 percent for 2015
- Markdown due to one-off factors and slower demand in emerging markets
- Risks from geopolitical tensions and higher financial market volatility
Global growth decelerated more than expected in the first quarter of 2014, largely because of temporary setbacks, including a sharp correction to an earlier inventory buildup and the effects of a harsh winter on domestic demand in the United States.
Growth also disappointed in China as policies were tightened to dampen credit growth and housing market activity. Growth moderated in other emerging markets due to softer external demand and also because of slower-than-expected investment growth.
Advanced economies
Growth in advanced economies is projected to pick up from 1.3 percent in 2013 to 1.8 percent in 2014 and further to 2.4 percent in 2015.
Emerging markets and developing economies
Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to decline from 4.7 percent in 2013 to 4.6 percent in 2014 and then accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2015 on stronger exports.
Downside risks
Risks from geopolitical tensions have risen as those related to Ukraine are still alive and new risks have emerged in the Middle East.
Policy implications
Policy support is needed to achieve a more robust recovery with stronger actual and potential growth in many economies.
Source: IMF