Forget Switzerland: These banks will be hit by SNB shock 

Swiss franc shock

Switzerland’s shock scrapping of its currency cap could knock Swiss bank earnings by 10-15 percent, but financial firms in nearby central and eastern European countries could be worse affected, Pimco’s head of financial research told CNBC on Tuesday.

“I think the more important angle in the Swiss story, is what it does to Polish banks and Austrian banks,” London-based Philippe Bodereau told CNBC.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) stunned markets last week when it ended its three-year-old currency cap that pegged the Swiss franc to the euro. In a chaotic few minutes after the announcement, the franc soared by around 30 percent in value against the euro and 25 percent against the U.S. dollar.

The move also hit equity markets hard, with the Swiss benchmark stock index falling by more than 10 percent on the day at one point. Major Swiss banks like Credit Suisse and UBS fell further, by as much as 17 percent on the day.

“I think with the Swiss banks, the impact is pretty simple—you have a big revenue base in dollars and a big cost base in Swiss francs, and de facto, in our numbers, with the move of the Swiss franc, you have 10-15 percent cut to earnings,” said Bodereau.

However, he added: “I think the impact on capital is actually quite limited, that is something that Swiss banks will survive.”

Bodereau was less sanguine about the prospects of Austrian banks, the largest of which by total assets include Erste Group Bank, UniCredit Bank Austria and Raiffeisen Bank International.

“We have just found out this week that 18 percent of retail loans in Austria were denominated in Swiss francs. That it is going to cause mass pressures in a banking system that is already really weak. So I think Austria will be the one I will be looking at when I think of the Swiss franc right now,” he said.

Shares of Erste Bank and Raiffeisen fell by around 8 percent on Thursday after the SNB made its move.

On Tuesday, Poland ordered an investigation into the widespread practise of domestic banks offering mortgage loans denominated in Swiss francs, according to Reuters.

This practise, which saw homebuyers opt for Swiss franc-denominated loans with lower interest rates than those on zloty-denominated loans, has left borrowers at the mercy of financial markets since the franc surged last week.

The Governor of the Polish central bank, Marek Belka, has called for “extraordinary” measures and a possible cut to mortgage rates to provide relief for borrowers, according to Reuters.

Source: cnbc – Forget Switzerland: These banks will be hit by SNB shock

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