Euro falls, stocks rise on ECB stimulus bet
The euro fell to a near one-year low against the dollar and euro zone stocks and bonds rallied on Monday as investors positioned for rising chances of further policy easing by the European Central Bank.
ECB President Mario Draghi said late on Friday that the bank was prepared to respond with all its available tools should inflation in the euro zone drop further.
Investors speculated this meant the ECB was more likely to embark on an asset purchase program, or quantitative easing, or adopt other stimulus measures in coming months which would weigh on the euro and boost assets such as stocks and bonds.
A weak German business sentiment index, Ifo, also added pressure on the euro in European trade, as it reinforced concerns about Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy.
The euro skidded to $1.3185 EUR= in early Asian trade, its lowest since September 2013, from around $1.3246 late in New York on Friday. It was last trading at $1.3190, down about 0.3 percent on the day, amid lower than usual volumes due to a holiday in London.
The euro zone’s blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index .STOXX50E was up 1.2 percent to 3,135.38 points after climbing to a three-week high in early deals. Both Germany’s DAX .GDAXI and France’s CAC 40 .FCHI gained 1.2 percent.
The MSCI All-Country World index .MIWD00000PUS was up 0.1 percent at 429.03 points.
Spanish ES10YT=TWEB and Italian IT10YT=TWEB 10-year yields fell 8 bps to 2.31 percent and 2.51 percent, respectively, while Portuguese yields PT10YT=TWEB fell 14 bps to 3.12 percent.
“The … market has interpreted Draghi’s statement as meaning that broad-based asset purchases, or quantitative easing, has now become more likely,” said Lutz Karpowitz, currency strategist at Commerzbank.
The Ifo business climate index dropped for a fourth straight month in August and the Ifo Institute said it was likely to cut its 2014 growth forecast for Germany to 1.5 percent from 2 percent.
Also sounding dovish was Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who vowed over the weekend to press ahead with aggressive monetary easing for as long as needed to convince the public that deflation was dead and buried.
Kuroda’s pledges of policy stimulus weighed on the yen JPY=, which was down 0.1 percent against the dollar.
US RATES SEEN RISING EARLIER
In contrast, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday gave a nod to the concerns of some Fed officials about the sustained level of monetary policy stimulus, even as she stressed the need to move cautiously on raising rates.
As a result, Fed funds futures fell back <0#FF:> as the market priced in the risk of an earlier rise in interest rates, while the dollar index .DXY rose to 82.563, its highest since September last year.
U.S. T-note futures TYv1 were flat at 125-57/64, with cash 10-year yields US10YT=RR trading at 2.41 percent.
In commodities markets, the rising dollar pressured prices with spot gold XAU= hovering near its lowest in two months at $1,277.00.
Brent crude dipped towards $102 a barrel on Monday as ample supply and a stronger U.S. dollar continued to pressure oil markets.
(Additional reporting by Anirban Nag and Marius Zaharia in London; Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Susan Fenton)
Source: Reuters
